Mark Twain said “Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” Clearly, it’s not a problem we have to confront too often but then, our job is to invest prudently over the long term and not chase moonbeams by confusing clients’ capital with roulette chips. For…
Britain has, at least in a technical sense, finally emerged from recession. Most industrialised nations have been posting anaemic growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) but Albion has lagged persistently. The Chancellor believes we are on the cusp of recovery but then, in the summer of 2008, he opined that we would escape recession, the…
Markets keep rising but so does unemployment. Governments print money although the vast majority of it leaches into speculative capital market trading rather than worthwhile economic activity. Record low interest rates will both provoke and sustain economic recovery yet inflation will not be the result. The inconsistencies just keep on coming. At the Labour Party…
An acquaintance of ours asked us recently why, unlike the majority of investment managers, we weren’t talking the stockmarket up. We explained it was because longer term economic fundamentals will make real progress difficult. We weren’t talking it up pre recession and we will not do it now. We are advisers, not cheerleaders and we…
We have always invested a good deal of time ensuring that our clients understand our investment thinking, both in the short and longer terms. While we have been clear about how we viewed the events of the past couple of years, together with our expectations for the future, there are times when it merits amplification.…
This year, the Euro celebrated its tenth birthday. It was launched with great fanfare on the 1st January 1999; Rudolf Erlinger, then Chairman of the EU group of finance ministers proclaiming “we are standing at the dawn of a new era”. Portugal declared it was delighted while Finland was honoured. Perhaps sensing where this all…
Experts; where would we be without them? A lot better off is our guess. We’re not talking here about real experts like doctors, dentists, pilots or plumbers; individuals that deliver worthwhile services. No; we refer to those experts that make a lucrative living despite being persistently wrong. The investment industry is full of them but…
Once upon a time, economic prosperity was the result of a high savings ratio combined with sweat and risk taking. Victorian Britain pioneered it while the U.S. was built on it. Thrift created the funds that could be re-cycled via the banking system which, in turn, begat further wealth creation. Obviously, this commendable model contained…
It is a great comfort to know that those who were playing blind man’s buff while the economic crisis was fermenting now see a swift recovery on the horizon. Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said recently “the U.S. economy appears to be stabilizing on many fronts and that recovery is likely to…
In recent years, Budgets have been rather boring, a mirage of prosperity rendering them a sideshow. However, last month’s crossed the Rubicon. The Chancellor believes there will be a rapid economic recovery and while the economy will contract by 3.5% this year, he plumps for growth of 1.25% in 2010 followed by 3.5% in 2011.…