Ukraine continues to dominate headlines. As we write, it appears Russia’s initial tactics have failed and a combination of its frustration, incompetence and brutality hallmarks the next stage of this conflict. In 2000, the Chechen capital, Grozny, had suffered a greater degree of destruction than befell Dresden at the end of WWII, so Putin’s current…
As we write, it appears only a matter of time before Russia launches an all out offensive in Ukraine. Its initial campaign has clearly failed as increasingly absurd Kremlin comments and the facial expression of Sergei Shoigu (Defence Minister) neatly illustrate. It’s a bad career move to be the deliverer of bad news to Putin.…
World markets have done little since the turn of the year. Omicron was a potential fly in the ointment but fears it would lead to another wave of lockdowns have proven false. Of course, it’s only a matter of time before a new mutation arrives and so on. Whether this time next year we’ll be…
Another month, another Covid variant. To date, each new strain has caused less economic damage than its forerunner. Whether Omicron follows this pattern remains to be seen although anecdotal evidence suggests that while it appears more infectious, it is ultimately less dangerous to vulnerable patients. It is, of course, entirely predictable that the virus is…
Markets have shown little enthusiasm to break out of the narrow trading ranges established over recent months. The US Federal Reserve said it would begin tapering its monthly asset purchases to $105bn from $120bn, with another $15bn reduction this month. Note, it’s only reducing the amount of assets bought with resources conjured out of thin…
Markets continue to trade within narrow ranges. The reopening of economies has delivered a strange brew of supply chain issues, shortages, stuttering industrial production and inflation. Supply chain problems will eventually sort themselves, as will shortages but as we’ve said many times before, we doubt inflation will be quite so easy to fix, All major…
Not for the first time, this month we find ourselves writing something very similar to what was written the previous month and indeed, the months before that. Markets recognise economic recovery is clearly on the march but Covid-19 outbreaks (and variants thereof) together with higher inflation, temper optimism. If rising prices are indeed temporary, herd…
Markets remain range bound. Central banks continue to emphasise support (or is it endless subsidy?) despite economies reopening. On the other hand, Covid flareups are still happening and while the Biden administration’s chief medical officer, Dr Anthony Fauci, made it clear he didn’t expect a return to lockdowns, he commented that “things are going to…
Markets have generally traded within narrow ranges. On the one hand, the reopening of economies has provided added impetus to artificially subdued economic growth. On the other, rising inflation poses the question of what central banks are going to do about it. In the US, inflation is now running at 5.4% while in the UK…
Are we there yet? Those familiar with transporting children on long journeys will instantly recognise the question. But from an economic perspective, how close to ‘there’ are we in terms of returning to normality after Covid-19 laid waste? Sometimes, it seems very close indeed but then at others …. it seems to slip further away…