Markets are now reflecting multiple concerns. February witnessed the shock of a full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, rather than a Donbas land grab mirroring Putin’s previous tactics in North Ossetia, Abkhazia and Crimea. Due to Ukrainian resistance, Western assistance and poor Russian tactics, Putin’s ambitions have subsequently been clipped out of necessity. However, the…
While the war (sorry, Special Operation) in Ukraine continues to take centre stage, there are signs that markets are starting to look beyond it, refocusing on economic matters. In the US, 10 year Treasury bonds currently yield 2.4% which offers precious little recompense when inflation stands at 8.5%. In the UK, 10 year Government bonds…
Ukraine continues to dominate headlines. As we write, it appears Russia’s initial tactics have failed and a combination of its frustration, incompetence and brutality hallmarks the next stage of this conflict. In 2000, the Chechen capital, Grozny, had suffered a greater degree of destruction than befell Dresden at the end of WWII, so Putin’s current…
As we write, it appears only a matter of time before Russia launches an all out offensive in Ukraine. Its initial campaign has clearly failed as increasingly absurd Kremlin comments and the facial expression of Sergei Shoigu (Defence Minister) neatly illustrate. It’s a bad career move to be the deliverer of bad news to Putin.…
World markets have done little since the turn of the year. Omicron was a potential fly in the ointment but fears it would lead to another wave of lockdowns have proven false. Of course, it’s only a matter of time before a new mutation arrives and so on. Whether this time next year we’ll be…
Another month, another Covid variant. To date, each new strain has caused less economic damage than its forerunner. Whether Omicron follows this pattern remains to be seen although anecdotal evidence suggests that while it appears more infectious, it is ultimately less dangerous to vulnerable patients. It is, of course, entirely predictable that the virus is…
Markets have shown little enthusiasm to break out of the narrow trading ranges established over recent months. The US Federal Reserve said it would begin tapering its monthly asset purchases to $105bn from $120bn, with another $15bn reduction this month. Note, it’s only reducing the amount of assets bought with resources conjured out of thin…
Markets continue to trade within narrow ranges. The reopening of economies has delivered a strange brew of supply chain issues, shortages, stuttering industrial production and inflation. Supply chain problems will eventually sort themselves, as will shortages but as we’ve said many times before, we doubt inflation will be quite so easy to fix, All major…
Not for the first time, this month we find ourselves writing something very similar to what was written the previous month and indeed, the months before that. Markets recognise economic recovery is clearly on the march but Covid-19 outbreaks (and variants thereof) together with higher inflation, temper optimism. If rising prices are indeed temporary, herd…
Markets remain range bound. Central banks continue to emphasise support (or is it endless subsidy?) despite economies reopening. On the other hand, Covid flareups are still happening and while the Biden administration’s chief medical officer, Dr Anthony Fauci, made it clear he didn’t expect a return to lockdowns, he commented that “things are going to…