Equity markets have retained their poise. Lockdowns are, for the most part, being relaxed and while normality still looks a long way off, the move towards it is undeniable. In the UK, the economy is forecast to attain its pre pandemic peak by the middle of next year, aided greatly by forced saving delivering a…
Markets have remained strong, buoyed by vaccine programmes and potential paths out of lockdown assuming greater visibility. Having said that, with various geographical areas moving at different speeds and talk of third waves, there’s obviously a long way to go before anything resembling normality can resume. Economically, inflation and economic growth dominate discussion. Globally, growth…
World markets have, belatedly, started to consider the return of that mythical beast, inflation. Long considered extinct by many, it’s a species whose DNA looks eminently capable of resurrection in the ubiquitous economic laboratory experiments now being undertaken by just about every government and central bank. Stock markets are directly affected by bond markets because…
Equity markets remain perky, the result of global, wall to wall economic stimulus. This largesse now resembles a teenage party that’s out of control at the point when the parents return home. However, instead of calling a halt, they fetch another crate from the garage and join in. In the US, President Biden’s pandemic relief…
Global markets surged after the Democrats secured the U.S. Senate. With both houses now under their control, investors reacted in Pavlovian fashion, anticipating greater monetary stimulus alongside a more expansive fiscal agenda. We’ve said it before (and many times before that) but how more expansive can any of this get? Sovereign borrowing is close to…
Well, we have a deal with the EU. Proof, if it were needed, that whatever one might negotiate, a conclusion will only result once one side makes it clear the timescale for negotiation is not indefinite. A combination of several Covid-19 vaccines, the EU deal and promises of continued global economic stimulus have encouraged equity…
World markets soared on the news that Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is 90% efficient (traditional flu jabs are around 50%). In addition, there are another 150 vaccines in development and 3,600 trials still being undertaken. It’s obviously great news although the organising of mammoth immunisation programmes means anything resembling normality is still some way…
We suggested a couple of months ago that relaxations of Covid-19 lockdowns would soon be reversed as inevitably, with the virus omnipresent, greater interaction would aggravate infection rates. We now face another national lockdown, representing a hammer blow to economic recovery. In our view, previous levels of output will take years to reclaim and the…
The numbers keep deteriorating. Japan’s economy contracted by 7.8% in the second quarter (versus the first quarter) as exports and consumer spending plummeted. Germany’s fell a record 10.1% while the EU average slumped by 11.9%. The US posted a 9.5% decline while the UK delivered an enormous 20.4% contraction, although this could yet be revised…
Are we there yet? Well, wherever we are going, the answer is ‘no’. Stock markets are mechanisms of prediction; arenas where millions of participants’ opinions are distilled into price movements. As a rule, the more uncertainty present, the greater the level of volatility. As markets grapple with when the world will return to some kind…