The numbers keep deteriorating. Japan’s economy contracted by 7.8% in the second quarter (versus the first quarter) as exports and consumer spending plummeted. Germany’s fell a record 10.1% while the EU average slumped by 11.9%. The US posted a 9.5% decline while the UK delivered an enormous 20.4% contraction, although this could yet be revised…
Are we there yet? Well, wherever we are going, the answer is ‘no’. Stock markets are mechanisms of prediction; arenas where millions of participants’ opinions are distilled into price movements. As a rule, the more uncertainty present, the greater the level of volatility. As markets grapple with when the world will return to some kind…
World stock markets appear to be sanguine regarding economic recovery post the initial shock of Covid-19. Of course, the latter hasn’t gone away and as the experience of Leicester illustrates, the release of lockdown can easily be reversed. Numerous cities around the world have taken similar action as the return to normality, inevitably, provides a…
Markets remain in capricious mood. Violent changes in sentiment have become common as share prices react to the latest economic news or central banks’ comments. As lockdowns ease, investors are optimistic that a ‘v’ shaped recovery will ensue. To a degree, this will be self-fulfilling as enterprises open for business once more and a significant…
Worldwide, the quarantine that has become strangely normal is starting to be relaxed. The economic damage is already immense and while comparisons with 2008/09 are understandable, what is now unfolding will be noticeably worse. At the time of writing, 15% of the U.S. workforce is unemployed and on some definitions, it is noticeably higher. The…
Unsurprisingly, global markets have remained volatile although they are now considerably higher than the lows reached in late March. Not that long ago, investors wondered when the next recession might strike. As the economic cycle had been artificially extended due to endless central bank intervention in the wake of the financial crisis, it was a…
What a difference a month makes. There is now no doubt we are in the midst of a global pandemic, the like of which no living person can recall. Originally, the fear was a global economic slowdown. Now, a deep worldwide recession is a certainty and the real fear is a resulting depression, the like…
It seems we live in extraordinary times. As if Brexit, US elections, impeachment and endless experimental monetary policies weren’t sufficient, we now have the Coronavirus to add to the mix. Numerous companies have already stated this is now having a material effect on trading within China and we have no doubt there will be more…
2019 was the best year for global equities since 2009. Sino-US trade tensions failed to escalate into a full blown trade war and while the world economy certainly slowed, it didn’t match the worst predictions. Markets were also supported by the US Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce rates three times. Of course, as the cost…
So, now we know. Mr Johnson’s electoral success puts paid to over 3 years of political logjam and the UK’s withdrawal from the EU can truly begin. Well, that’s the theory although one suspects sorting a trade deal will not be plain sailing. Anyway, we can perhaps now concentrate a little more upon economic matters…