It was no particular surprise to see the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to a range of 4.75% – 5.0%. Of the 12 voting members, only one demurred and even they voted for a quarter point reduction. Chair Powell noted “this reflects our growing confidence that with an…
Stock markets have reacted badly to inflation figures from the U.K., U.S. and Eurozone. We’ve commented previously about the groupthink that now infests central banks and policy makers, in general. A cozy consensus was emerging that falling inflation would pave the way for rate cuts but inflation, while sharply lower over the past 12 months,…
Saul Bellow, Nobel Prize Winner for Literature, noted “a great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep”. This neatly segues into the travails of short-term office lessor, WeWork, which recently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Whatever value remains (if any), once it emerges,…
At its November meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates within a 5.25% – 5.50% range. The Bank of England did likewise, keeping its key rate at 5.25% while the European Central Bank (ECB) also opted to maintain the status quo at 4.0%. Not for the first time, we are left wondering why they…
RIP Charlie Munger, Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, who died on the 28th November just shy of his 100th birthday. While always attracted to the investment philosophy of Munger’s more famous business partner, Warren Buffett, as time progressed I became more Charlie than Warren. Munger said less than Buffett but it resonated more. He also cared…
The Bank of England (B of E), U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) all raised benchmark rates by 0.25% in order to tame inflation that remains substantially above target in all three territories. In the B of E’s case, it was the 14th consecutive increase, a damning indictment of its ineptitude by…
In James Cameron’s ‘Titanic’, Jack (Leonardo Di Caprio) perished while Rose (Kate Winslet) survived. However, when Coutts hit an iceberg, the roles were reversed. BBC business hack Simon Jack remains in post while Dame Alison Rose was effectively forced to resign, despite Nat West’s hapless chairman, Sir Howard Davies, expressing initial confidence in her. I…
Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes from its last meeting suggested interest rates were likely to rise further in 2023 although at a slower pace. After 10 consecutive increases, June witnessed a pause in tightening. In the Eurozone, service and manufacturing output weakened while its strongest economy, Germany, entered recession. China continued to send mixed messages but…
I was interested to see Shell’s chief executive, Wael Sawan, not rule out moving group headquarters and main stock market listing to the US. He referred to the warm welcome extended by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at a recent investors’ meeting, illustrated by the Shell flag flying alongside the NYSE flag; “they said…
Mmmm …… so Bank of England (B of E) governor, Andrew Bailey, admits there are “very big lessons to learn” in setting monetary policy after the B of E failed to a) foresee inflation on the horizon b) did nothing even when it was glaringly obvious problems were brewing c) believed it was all ‘transitory’…