World markets soared on the news that Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is 90% efficient (traditional flu jabs are around 50%). In addition, there are another 150 vaccines in development and 3,600 trials still being undertaken. It’s obviously great news although the organising of mammoth immunisation programmes means anything resembling normality is still some way…
We suggested a couple of months ago that relaxations of Covid-19 lockdowns would soon be reversed as inevitably, with the virus omnipresent, greater interaction would aggravate infection rates. We now face another national lockdown, representing a hammer blow to economic recovery. In our view, previous levels of output will take years to reclaim and the…
The numbers keep deteriorating. Japan’s economy contracted by 7.8% in the second quarter (versus the first quarter) as exports and consumer spending plummeted. Germany’s fell a record 10.1% while the EU average slumped by 11.9%. The US posted a 9.5% decline while the UK delivered an enormous 20.4% contraction, although this could yet be revised…
Very few things in life are predictable; perhaps only death, taxes and the next three Russian presidential elections. The investment industry is based on prediction, which is a pity because it isn’t very good at it. Like a medieval alchemist attempting to transform base metal into gold (again), it is too often fixated with predicting…