With so much going on at the moment, it’s a welcome return for the Just Williams podcast regulars Duncan Williams and John Newsome to help make some sense of the noise. First up is the U.S election, starting with the performance of the pollsters and moving onto what having Elon Musk as one of his…
November will see rate decisions from both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. In the wake of relatively benign inflation data, interest rate reductions are almost a foregone conclusion. The European Central Bank cut by another 0.25% on 17th October. The background is clearly disinflationary. UK inflation at the CPI level…
The Williams Investment team of Duncan Williams and John Newsome are back and fired up to bring you their thoughts on the recent Budget. What did they think about the changes to Employer NICs, the increase in the Minimum Wage and the tweaks to the rules around Inheritance provision, and who do they think would…
The spotlight for this episode of the Just Williams podcast is the upcoming Budget, which means that investment specialists Duncan Williams and John Newsome are speculating on how it might all shake down. They discuss what they think Rachel Reeves has got planned, and what might that might mean for your investment strategy, and indeed…
Welcome back to the Just Williams podcast, with Investment Managers Duncan Williams and John Newsome. They begin with an update on U.S Economic Policy following the recent announcement from the Federal Reserve of a drop in Interest Rates, and follow that up with a whistle-stop global tour around the current position of a number of…
It was no particular surprise to see the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to a range of 4.75% – 5.0%. Of the 12 voting members, only one demurred and even they voted for a quarter point reduction. Chair Powell noted “this reflects our growing confidence that with an…
The new episode of Just Williams hits the ground hard this time, as Investment Managers Duncan Williams and John Newsome weigh up what they think will happen with Interest rates on either side of the Atlantic as well as what Rachel Reeves may do in the pending Budget, and that might mean for investors. They…
Back refreshed after the summer break the Just Williams podcast regulars Duncan Williams and John Newsome bring you a packed autumnal edition. The regular interest rate and inflation section focusses on the apparent shortage of available employees on both sides of the Atlantic, and how that could be an inflationary factor as well as the…
September will see interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the European Central Bank. It is probably fair to say the majority of commentators are expecting rate cuts and, theoretically, the latter always enhances the value of equities. However, rate cuts at this juncture would imply a question mark over…
Welcome back to another slice of investment insight with Duncan Williams and John Newsome of Williams Investment Management. Duncan has been known to comment that they are forever banging on about inflation and interest rates, and whilst that may have a ring of truth, the discussion this time is almost Olympian in its analysis of…
It has been a very busy few weeks. The UK has a new government, intent on ‘growing the economy’. President Biden announced he was suspending his 2024 re-election campaign in the wake of mounting pressure from within the Democratic Party after a series of gaffes had seriously damaged his credibility. Perhaps the only real surprise…
It’s as you were for the new episode of the Just Williams podcast, as Duncan Williams is joined by John Newsome, fresh from vacation and invigorated by tales of hi-tech luggage handling. In fact it’s a bit of a globe-trotting instalment, as we bounce between commercial and political updates from all over the place, including…
The first Just Williams podcast since the general election, so clearly lots to talk about. As usual Duncan Williams of Williams Investment Management is on hand and for this episode he is joined by his colleague Val Wade. First up is the burning question of how Labour is going to fund their manifesto promises now…
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged and guided that just one reduction might be expected before the end of 2024. It added that it believes the long run interest rate (however one defines such a number) is higher than previously thought. Not that long ago, there was realistic chatter of 5…
It’s a bit of a strange one this time. Which is a little odd because we had ensured the pre-recording schedule was followed to the letter Duncan Williams and John Newsome on-hand to offer forthright opinion and pithy comment. Check, An update to the headline inflation figure which could prompt a shift in Interest Rates.…
Well this is a bit of a turn-up, we have hit the 50 episodes of the Just Williams podcast! To mark this particular milestone (and to help us celebrate) now would be a perfect time to recommend your favourite investment podcast to your friends and colleagues, just get them to search us up in their…
We have now entered territory where, if rate cuts are realistic, the data will support it. In both the U.K. and U.S., September reductions are increasingly being thought of as probable rather than possible. That said, having missed inflation targets for years via inaccurate forecasting, central banks carry a burden their battered credibility will struggle…
Duncan Williams and John Newsome of Williams Investment Management are back for another slice of financial chat and analysis. For this episode everything is being viewed through the prism of the upcoming general election, which means they consider the possible impact this will have on inflation and interest rates as well as other general macro-economic…
A leading Harrogate wealth management firm has honoured the memory of a much-loved and much-missed former partner with a donation to mental health charity Wellspring Therapy & Training. Williams Investment Management LLP has given £1,000 to the Starbeck-based charity in memory of Robert Ash, who died tragically last September. Duncan Williams, founding partner of WIM…
Duncan Williams and John Newsome of Williams Investment Management are back to keep you ahead of the curve as far as financial matters are concerned. This time we delve into the delicate and nuanced relationship between property values and government spending and how they both impact on the setting of interest rates and the level…
It’s always a bit of a struggle getting back into the swing of things after a three-day-weekend, particularly if you have been kicking back with a beverage of choice and enjoying the snooker. Fear not because right on cue (see what we did there) the Just Williams boys, aka John Newsome and Duncan Williams, are…
Wishful thinking is a poor replacement for that of the critical variety. Not too long ago, investors were expecting the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver 5 rate cuts this year. Now, that number is considerably less. But then, it’s hardly surprising when U.S. core annual inflation for March was unchanged at 3.8%, exactly the same…
Duncan Williams and John Newsome are back, all primed and ready to talk you through your regular slice of global financial news and investment market insight. We begin as always with an update on inflation and interest rates and an acknowledgement from Duncan that whilst it might seem on the surface that this part of…
Welcome back to the Just Williams, your perfectly formed snapshot of what is going down in the world of investment. This week, regulars John Newsome and Duncan Williams give you their predictions for interest movement of the remainder of the year, and why it could be more modest than anticipated. They take a look at…
Markets continue hoping that rate cuts are close while central banks remain happy to oblige them, without actually delivering the goods. Fed chairman, Jay Powell, said it was not far from gaining confidence that inflation is trending to target and that cuts would likely be appropriate later this year. Not for the first time, the…
Regular hosts Duncan Williams and John Newsome are back for another slice of financial news and market update. Starting with an update of global inflation and monetary policy, they turn next to one key aspect of the recent budget, and offer their thoughts on the new ‘British’ ISA. After that they look to the investment…
Regulars Duncan Williams & John Newsome have plenty to get stuck into in this latest edition of the Just Williams podcast, which proves to be a bit globe-trotty in nature. So after updating you on Inflation & Interest Rates the boys turn their attention to the US to speculate on the current situation post Super-Tuesday,…
The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at a 23 year high of 5.25% – 5.50%. However, Chairman Jerome Powell didn’t think it likely easing would commence in March, as many assumed previously. The Bank of England’s statement was not dissimilar in tone as it maintained its benchmark rate of 5.25%. It was the same…
Join the Just Williams management team of Duncan Williams and John Newsome as they take you on your fortnightly foray into the world of Global Finance and the Investment Markets. After the usual update on inflation and interest rates they turn their attention to a recent development in the Japanese stock market that has been…
Duncan and John kick off this episode with a deeper dive into inflation, in particular a problem they have been talking about for quite a while now namely the structural inflation that seems to be hanging around despite all efforts to shift it. Now of course you can take a view on how well this…
Stock markets have reacted badly to inflation figures from the U.K., U.S. and Eurozone. We’ve commented previously about the groupthink that now infests central banks and policy makers, in general. A cozy consensus was emerging that falling inflation would pave the way for rate cuts but inflation, while sharply lower over the past 12 months,…
Look at us go, sticking to our resolution and bringing you a new episode at the time we promised. And what’s more a bit of a departure from the norm, after a quick update on the global financial situation we jump head first into an example of how we work we review a portfolio. So…
A brand new year, and a brand new resolution from the folks at the Just Williams podcast. What won’t be changing is the regular focus on current events and how they impact on the global financial markets, the up-to-the minute insight into the investment sector or highlighting what we need to be watching out for…
12 months ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell, noted “The question of when to moderate the pace of increases is much less important than the question of how high and how long to keep monetary policy restrictive”. At the time, U.S., UK and Eurozone rates were 4%, 3% and 2.5% respectively. After their December 2023…
Look out, it’s the Christmas Special edition of the Just Williams podcast! Tune in as John & Duncan, resplendent in their Christmas Jumpers, close out the year by taking you through some of the highs (and the not-so-highs) of global economic conditions and the investment markets over the course of 2023. Whilst sticky inflation and…
Saul Bellow, Nobel Prize Winner for Literature, noted “a great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep”. This neatly segues into the travails of short-term office lessor, WeWork, which recently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Whatever value remains (if any), once it emerges,…
At its November meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates within a 5.25% – 5.50% range. The Bank of England did likewise, keeping its key rate at 5.25% while the European Central Bank (ECB) also opted to maintain the status quo at 4.0%. Not for the first time, we are left wondering why they…
It’s the post-Thanksgiving, pre-Advent edition of Just Williams and it’s coming at you with twinkly lights, frosty paths and the faint whiff of a warm mince pie. As always we catch up with the last global economic news before Duncan & John offer pithy insight into the investment markets with that laser-like focus that you…
RIP Charlie Munger, Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, who died on the 28th November just shy of his 100th birthday. While always attracted to the investment philosophy of Munger’s more famous business partner, Warren Buffett, as time progressed I became more Charlie than Warren. Munger said less than Buffett but it resonated more. He also cared…
We have been reminded over the last few weeks that whatever happens the world always continues to turn, which means there is always something for us to get our teeth into when it comes to matters of financial investment. So for this recording we talk about the latest on how stubborn underlying inflation continues to…
Will interest rates stay higher for longer? The rise in global bond yields suggests that’s the way investors are leaning. Central banks, having been wholly ignorant of inflationary dangers, now have a serious credibility problem with regard to getting it back under control. Their only remaining policy option is to hike interest rates which is…
Ex the United States, the global economy increasingly looks stuck in a low growth orbit and even the U.S. cannot continue deficit spending 8% of its annual gross domestic product without serious consequences. One may conclude the Federal Reserve’s hiking of interest rates from virtually zero to more than 5%, over an 18 month period,…
It is with huge sadness that we have to inform you that our longstanding friend and business partner, Robert Ash, died on Tuesday 19 September. We shall remember Robert’s charm and wit and he will be sorely missed by all of us at Williams Investment Management LLP. Our thoughts are very much with Robert’s wife,…
The Bank of England (B of E), U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) all raised benchmark rates by 0.25% in order to tame inflation that remains substantially above target in all three territories. In the B of E’s case, it was the 14th consecutive increase, a damning indictment of its ineptitude by…
In James Cameron’s ‘Titanic’, Jack (Leonardo Di Caprio) perished while Rose (Kate Winslet) survived. However, when Coutts hit an iceberg, the roles were reversed. BBC business hack Simon Jack remains in post while Dame Alison Rose was effectively forced to resign, despite Nat West’s hapless chairman, Sir Howard Davies, expressing initial confidence in her. I…
Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes from its last meeting suggested interest rates were likely to rise further in 2023 although at a slower pace. After 10 consecutive increases, June witnessed a pause in tightening. In the Eurozone, service and manufacturing output weakened while its strongest economy, Germany, entered recession. China continued to send mixed messages but…
I was interested to see Shell’s chief executive, Wael Sawan, not rule out moving group headquarters and main stock market listing to the US. He referred to the warm welcome extended by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at a recent investors’ meeting, illustrated by the Shell flag flying alongside the NYSE flag; “they said…
Was it a surprise the U.S. debt ceiling was raised? Of course not; there was only going to be one ending to this theatrical stand off and Biden was always going to get his money. Of course, the real issue is when will the U.S. (and the Western world in general) get its house in…
Mmmm …… so Bank of England (B of E) governor, Andrew Bailey, admits there are “very big lessons to learn” in setting monetary policy after the B of E failed to a) foresee inflation on the horizon b) did nothing even when it was glaringly obvious problems were brewing c) believed it was all ‘transitory’…
The Bank of England raised base rate by another quarter of a point to 4.5%, representing the 12th consecutive increase and a damning indictment of its failure to conduct competent monetary policy. The 0.25% uplift emulated the actions of both the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank although their benchmark rates are now 5%…
For the second month in a row, UK CPI inflation has been worse than expected and currently stands in double digits. The Bank of England noted the path of inflation may be bumpier than expected in the short term but is likely to fall from thereon. We suspect it is correct but then, the Bank…
Eurozone inflation was slightly higher than anticipated in February but it was the increase in core inflation (excluding food and energy) that caught the eye. Now, one may conclude that food and energy, although volatile, are very much ‘core’ but leaving that argument aside, if the price of everything else is still rising (at a…
We live in a curious age. For all our mediums of instant communication, language increasingly obfuscates rather than enlightens. It seems people wish to be told what they want to hear rather than face reality. As for governments, now ever more manned/womaned/theyd by the incompetent, it’s a desire they are happy to comply with,…
Inflation looks to be moderating but the rate increases keep coming. The Federal Reserve increased U.S. rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.5% – 4.75% while the European Central Banks and Bank of England raised by 0.5% to 2.5% and 4.0%, respectively. All still have base borrowing costs meaningfully below their present rates of…
Increasingly, we live in a world of stupidity. I was recently watching the TV (now, a rare event) and the first advert at the commercial break was for a food delivery app. You know the kind of thing; junk food at the press of a button brought by a kid on a moped. The following…
Remember last year, central banks were often using the word ‘transitory’? It’s not a word we hear, now. 2022 was the year when the sheer incompetence of modern day central banking became all too obvious. Having held the cost of money at close to zero for well over a decade, economic reality crashed through the…
According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the world will face a ‘significant growth slowdown next year but will avoid a global recession’. We suspect this will prove as accurate as most OECD forecasts, which is not very accurate at all. It is our belief that it is close to impossible for…
Reversion to reality continues. Last month, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all raised rates by 0.75%. After more than a decade of nonsense, all are now perfectly synchronised. Is this because it is so obviously the right thing to do or are the latter two so inept…
I’ve always thought the word ‘crypto’ should have the letter ‘a’, somewhere and that Bitcoin should begin with a ‘sh’ sound. I’ve been asked many times what I thought about cryptocurrencies and at first, I said that I didn’t understand them. Now, after reading reams and listening to crypto experts, I can confidently say that…
Matt Hancock is currently a contestant on this year’s ‘I’m a Celebrity …… Get Me Out of Here’. To accept such an offer as a sitting MP suggests a brain the size of a pea (a split one) at any time but under current circumstances, it’s difficult to find the words although I shall try.…
Interest rates keep increasing, inflation keeps rising. The monetary policies of the last decade and a half are now being revealed for the experiments they truly were. As baseball legend, Yogi Berra, a man famous for colloquial expressions lacking in absolute logic yet simultaneously carrying more than a grain of truth, didn’t say but might…
Sometimes, it’s difficult to think of topics to write about. I shy away from posting on a pre-determined basis, preferring to comment only when a particular item has grabbed my attention. However, it’s not a problem I have at the moment. I could, pretty much, write something every day; all to the flapping soundtrack of…
The current economic mess, the creation of all central banks over the past decade, is starting to be unwound. Raging inflation has laid bare just how incompetent the guardians of our monetary systems have been. Consequently, after providing virtually free money for years, they are now aggressively raising interest rates in order to control runaway prices.…
I rarely watch BBC News nowadays. This is principally because there’s precious little news on it. I suppose it all depends upon what your definition of news is. Mine is what are the obvious national and international stories today on this planet of 7 billion plus souls? Lord Reith had it right when he noted the BBC’s job…
If there was any doubt regarding how inept, gullible and arrogant the Bank of England (B of E) is, it came with its decision to raise interest rates by 0.5% to 1.75%. It’s the largest rise in 27 years, which sounds dramatic but against CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation of 9.4%, it’s akin to calling…
Bad can be good and good can be bad. Michael Jackson was Bad although, according to Jordy Chandler, Wade Robson and Jimmy Safechuck, not in a good way. Bad can mean good as in ‘that Mustang is seriously badass’ which roughly translates as ‘that particular Ford car looks delightful’. A kind gentleman recently described my…
From an economic perspective, it’s difficult to argue there has been any improvement over recent weeks. On the contrary, global inflation continues to rise, as do interest rates while in the UK, waves of industrial action now appear a formality. Meanwhile, Putin’s forces continue their assault on Eastern Ukraine, meaning little respite for the prices…
In homage to the Halifax’s new policy on name badges carrying personal pronouns, Williams Investment Management decided to implement a similar strategy. I self identify as ‘John’, ‘Yorkshireman’ and ‘Bloke’ (or ‘Geezer’, for any readers in the London area). I’d wanted to add ‘George Clooney lookalike’ and ‘F16 Fighter Pilot’ but unfortunately there wasn’t enough room. I’m joking,…
There’s a wonderful Warren Buffett quote that never loses its resonance. “You should invest in a business that even a fool can run because someday a fool will”. Buffett means that he wants the business to be the ‘star’, not the management. A combination of a brilliant business with competent management is likely going to…
Markets have generally weakened as investors continue to absorb a plethora of bad news. Despite expecting inflation to be ‘transitory’, all major central banks are now not only tightening monetary policy but signalling that further rate rises are embedded in their thinking. It’s a pity their hopeless misreading of inflation has resulted in such a…
While the war (sorry, Special Operation) in Ukraine continues to take centre stage, there are signs that markets are starting to look beyond it, refocusing on economic matters. In the US, 10 year Treasury bonds currently yield 2.4% which offers precious little recompense when inflation stands at 8.5%. In the UK, 10 year Government bonds…
Ukraine continues to dominate headlines. As we write, it appears Russia’s initial tactics have failed and a combination of its frustration, incompetence and brutality hallmarks the next stage of this conflict. In 2000, the Chechen capital, Grozny, had suffered a greater degree of destruction than befell Dresden at the end of WWII, so Putin’s current…
Those of a certain age will remember the BBC sitcom, ‘The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin’, written by David Nobbs and starring Leonard Rossiter. It told the story of a middle aged executive rebelling against the tedium of his job. Reggie had reached a point where he could see through the office politics and constant failings…
I don’t think Stealers Wheel were referring to central bankers in their 1973 hit ‘Stuck in the middle with you’ although I could well be mistaken. However, everywhere one cares to look at present, the law of unintended consequences appears eager for a fight. Or, to put it another way, Murphy’s Law is alive and…
Mrs Newsome enjoys watching ‘Grand Designs’, fronted by Kevin McCloud. I occasionally watch it and sometimes it’s interesting to see how a family of six now live in an old ship’s funnel, up a tree in the Cotswolds. However, there’s something about him I just don’t like. Pretentious? Airy fairy? Head in the (Mc) clouds?…
Markets remain range bound. Central banks continue to emphasise support (or is it endless subsidy?) despite economies reopening. On the other hand, Covid flareups are still happening and while the Biden administration’s chief medical officer, Dr Anthony Fauci, made it clear he didn’t expect a return to lockdowns, he commented that “things are going to…
Earlier this year, we decided that we wanted a new way to share information about our approach to investment management, how we operate and to whom our services are best suited. There are many considerations when making investment decisions, influenced by individual circumstances and objectives, which require a tailored approach. We decided that a helpful…
The Nobel Memorial Prize winning economist Milton Friedman noted that “only the government can take perfectly good paper and perfectly good ink and render the combination completely useless”. He was, of course, referring to the dangers of inflation, once governments lose control of it. Inflation is a problem that hasn’t troubled the scorer for years…
Readers of a certain age will probably recognise the title as a play on the chorus of Crosby, Stills & Nash’s 1969 hippy anthem, ‘Marrakesh Express’. ESG, on the other hand, is a little less long in the tooth. It stands for Environmental, Social and Governance and is an investment trend fast approaching the mainstream.…
Jagger and Richards sagely told us that you can’t always get what you want. Harry and Meghan would likely agree, as we suspect, would many investors who signed up for ‘equity income’. Or, to be more precise, a high income derived from equities. This particular corner of the equity market is big business but with…
Very few things in life are predictable; perhaps only death, taxes and the next three Russian presidential elections. The investment industry is based on prediction, which is a pity because it isn’t very good at it. Like a medieval alchemist attempting to transform base metal into gold (again), it is too often fixated with predicting…
It has been an astounding few weeks. As I write, the FTSE 100 Index is down 30% in a month while crude oil has halved in value as Russia and Saudi are no longer on speaking terms because the former did not want to adhere to production cuts sought by the latter. As the lowest cost producer,…
Philosophy (from the Greek, ‘filosofia’) means love of wisdom and concerns itself with the study of existence, values, reality and knowledge; all essential stuff. As we know, the likes of Aristotle, Plato and Confucius made immense contributions to human thought and civilisation. Strangely, these giants of the ancient world instantly came to mind the other day as…
The demise of Neil Woodford’s empire has been truly astonishing and it’s not just its founder that faces scrutiny. The spotlight is now on the Financial Conduct Authority, together with Woodford’s Authorised Corporate Director (ACD), Link Fund Solutions. The FTSE 100 quoted financial services group, Hargreaves Lansdown, also has questions to answer regarding the closeness…
Mark Twain remarked that “history doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes”. He’d probably never been to Argentina. A year ago, it issued $2.75bn of debt at a yield of 7.9% in a capital raising that was 3.5x oversubscribed. The duration of this bond (its life) was 100 years; a detail that Gillian Tett, writing in…
Investors will be well aware that world stock markets have been rattled over the past couple of weeks. Chatter about a mini crash came naturally after Wall Street shed 6% in a single session. Various culprits were rounded up; rising U.S. Treasury bond yields, simmering inflation, Oxfam, the reduction of central bank stimulus and the…
So, Donald Trump will soon be sitting in the Oval Office. The BBC’s period of official mourning still has a week to run but from Silicon Valley to Islington (via Hollywood), the liberal left remains in a state of shock; if only the ‘deplorables’ couldn’t vote, Hillary would be President with Beyoncé and Jay Z…
The French fund manager, Jean Marie Eveillard, states “a good value (i.e. patient) investor aims to buy investments at prices that are less than they are truly worth and accepts there will be periods of short term pain. It is one reason why there are so few good value managers. It is not just psychological;…
The Bank of Japan has just cut its overnight interest rate from 0.1% to minus 0.1% while Sweden’s Riksbank took its lower still from minus 0.35% to minus 0.50%. The Japanese have therefore joined the club that the Swedes already belonged to, along with the Danes, the Swiss and the European Central Bank. Even U.S.…
Cast your mind back to those halcyon days when storms were nameless. Your dustbins were not only emptied regularly but actually returned to whence they came. Potholing was a weekend leisure activity rather than a description of your drive to work and it was possible to walk the length of the high street without being…
For investors, risk and return are Siamese Twins; you can’t obtain the latter without the assumption of the former. As a firm, we are occasionally chided (in a friendly way, it should be said) because when it comes to the deployment of capital, we prefer to focus on what might go wrong rather than hope…
Forget what they say, it’s what they do that matters. A point reinforced by the tale of the Reverend Paul Flowers. A man whose credentials should have been impeccable now has questions to answer regarding historic expenses irregularities, consorting with rent boys and buying crack; there are also drugs allegations. Multiple ironies abound here; the…
There will soon be a changing of the guard at the U.S. Federal Reserve as Ben Bernanke hands the reins (together with the paper, ink and printing press) over to Janet Yellen. Regarded as a ‘dove’ rather than a ‘hawk’ (i.e. she is more concerned with unemployment than inflation) it is highly unlikely there will…
It’s interesting how the appointment of a new broom can lead individuals to, well, change their minds. I suppose psychologists would say it is somehow related to the ingrained desire to seek shelter with the crowd. From the dawn of human existence on the plains of the Serengeti, mankind’s survival instinct decreed that the odds…
Value can be a frustratingly transient concept. It is documented that at the height of tulip mania in 17th century Holland, an Amsterdam town house was exchanged for a solitary bulb. Similarly, my daughter’s bedroom is often a tip and yet if she shared it with Tracey Emin, it would become art. As for those…
As a child, my favourite fairytale was Hans Christian Andersen’s ‘The Emperor’s New Clothes’. Upon reflection, I suspect this was because it chimed with reality where nonsense can persist indefinitely if individuals are afraid to look potentially foolish by challenging accepted orthodoxy. I was reminded of Andersen’s tale by the sight of numerous art experts…
We live in strange times. Never, in the furthest reaches of my imagination did I ever expect to see the words ‘Pussy Riot’ on the front pages of both the Daily Telegraph and Financial Times and yet, it came to pass. We also live in an age where people are assumed to be increasingly gullible.…
There was an old Soviet joke. The telephone rings at Cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin’s house and is answered by his daughter. She explains that her father is currently orbiting the earth but is due back at 7.00 pm. Her mother is also out but as she has gone shopping for groceries, it’s impossible to say when…
The advert for Barclays’ tracker rate mortgages urges borrowers to ‘take one small step’. Although hardly on a par with Neil Armstrong’s efforts, Bob Diamond did exactly that in the wake of the bank’s £290m fine for attempting to rig LIBOR. It is, without doubt, a sorry tale. A potent cocktail of power, laced with…
Warren Buffett observed that investors should look for companies that are so bulletproof, an idiot could run them because one day, that is probably what will happen. If he is correct, we conclude that if capitalism is likely to let the odd wally hop into the driving seat, then it’s a cast iron certainty that…
Sometimes it’s difficult to put exact numbers to things you know are vital. Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor, tells us “valuing a business is part art, part science”. He means that the art part of the equation is a bit woolly because it relates to matters such as quality of management or brand value, which…
Last December, the ratings agency, Standard & Poors (S & P), placed the debt of all 17 Eurozone nations on ‘negative watch’. This may sound sophisticated but in a nutshell, it is saying that the debt of these countries is not as solid as many (including S & P) thought originally. Even Germany was caught…
It was Robert Louis Stevenson (among others) who noted it was better to travel than arrive. Having flown with Ryanair, I would beg to differ. However, the disappointments of budget airline travel, the Pringles costing more than the ticket and the embarkation scrum resembling a scene from ‘Zulu’, pale into insignificance when considering the journey…
On numerous occasions we have referred to how the precarious state of the global economy is, in no small part, the result of ‘experts’ having a bit less expertise than either they thought or indeed, others attributed to them. A single currency for wildly differing economies? Check. Levels of sovereign debt that, realistically, can never…
It is comforting to know that high street financial institutions just want to hold our hands and guide us through life’s trials and tribulations. NatWest delivers ‘helpful banking’ and Lloyds is with us ‘for the journey’. Santander and its customers are ‘together’ while Halifax offers ‘a little extra help’. The warm fuzziness tends to disappear…
Well, there has been plenty going on. The country overwhelmingly rejected a change to the voting system, U.S. government debt was earmarked for a potential downgrade by the rating agency, Standard & Poors, while Gordon Brown fancied running the International Monetary Fund (IMF). To cap it all, Leeds United failed to make The Championship play-offs.…
It is all too easy to assume that individuals in positions of power know what they are doing. I recently saw an anonymous quote which opined that when you are young, you assume the world is generally organised along sensible lines. However, as you get older, you realise just how random and chaotic it truly…
It has been a miserable few weeks. Education riots, VAT at 20%, while to cap it all, Russia snaffled the World Cup. While we fielded Beckham, Cameron and Prince William for the big push, Vladimir Putin didn’t even feel the need to attend the final schmooze fest. To add insult to injury, they then sent…
When I was a boy, QE2 was the acronym used to describe a ship owned by Cunard. Now, it’s the next chapter of U.S. monetary policy. The QE2 of today refers to the second part of the U.S.’s programme of quantitative easing. For the next few months, the Federal Reserve intends to buy another $600…
In Oscar Wilde’s ‘The importance of being earnest’, Lady Bracknell tells us “… to lose one parent may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness.” Today, such bluntness would be called bullying and if done in the workplace, might give HR something to do for the entire week – or even…
It is a persistent problem. In the middle of the night, you are rudely awakened by a knock at your hotel door. Is the building on fire? Has your car been stolen? No; nothing so dramatic. It’s just a couple of strangers offering you a bag of diamonds. It happens to me all the time.…
There are well over half a million words in the English language. You might have thought that with all that choice, it wouldn’t be too difficult to make a decent stab at accurate description. Yet, curiously, modern life appears to struggle increasingly when it comes to conveying the essence of reality. Of course, there are…
Wise words from Bob Dylan. While I’m hardly an expert on 1960s counterculture, he meant (I think) that the answers are often there but, you must have the wisdom to notice them. It’s akin to reading between the lines rather than what is written on them. Investing can be similar. It is all too easy…
It has often been said of economics that while the questions remain the same, it is only the answers that change. The obscure Victorian economist, Thomas Carlyle, described economics as a ‘dismal science’. We venture he was wrong; it’s not a science at all. While I have a degree in the subject, I realised long…
In Hotel California, the Eagles tell us “we are all just prisoners here of our own device ……. you can check out any time you like but you can never leave”. While it’s not impossible Messrs Felder, Frey and Henley were referring to the reality of 1970’s Californian hedonistic indulgement, it reminded us of the…
Things aren’t always what they seem. A thought no doubt not lost on Accenture and Gillette. Both firms had promoted themselves on the back of Tiger Woods’ squeaky clean image. After paying him millions, it probably came as a shock when it became clear that his idea of playing a round didn’t always involve a…
Throughout history, gold has held an unshakable hold over the human psyche. From Midas to the Spanish Main, from Cecil Rhodes to… er, Spandau Ballet, gold has retained its allure. Auric Goldfinger was even prepared to render the contents of Fort Knox radioactive in order to profit from the resulting price hike. Of course, there…
It’s our view that the world economy is still concealing plenty of unexploded ordnance. Whether it detonates is another matter but every now and again we get a reminder that all is not as well as some would want us to believe. Greece has been the latest member of the Eurozone to feel the heat…
Mark Twain said “Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” Clearly, it’s not a problem we have to confront too often but then, our job is to invest prudently over the long term and not chase moonbeams by confusing clients’ capital with roulette chips. For…
Britain has, at least in a technical sense, finally emerged from recession. Most industrialised nations have been posting anaemic growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) but Albion has lagged persistently. The Chancellor believes we are on the cusp of recovery but then, in the summer of 2008, he opined that we would escape recession, the…
Markets keep rising but so does unemployment. Governments print money although the vast majority of it leaches into speculative capital market trading rather than worthwhile economic activity. Record low interest rates will both provoke and sustain economic recovery yet inflation will not be the result. The inconsistencies just keep on coming. At the Labour Party…
An acquaintance of ours asked us recently why, unlike the majority of investment managers, we weren’t talking the stockmarket up. We explained it was because longer term economic fundamentals will make real progress difficult. We weren’t talking it up pre recession and we will not do it now. We are advisers, not cheerleaders and we…
We have always invested a good deal of time ensuring that our clients understand our investment thinking, both in the short and longer terms. While we have been clear about how we viewed the events of the past couple of years, together with our expectations for the future, there are times when it merits amplification.…
This year, the Euro celebrated its tenth birthday. It was launched with great fanfare on the 1st January 1999; Rudolf Erlinger, then Chairman of the EU group of finance ministers proclaiming “we are standing at the dawn of a new era”. Portugal declared it was delighted while Finland was honoured. Perhaps sensing where this all…
Experts; where would we be without them? A lot better off is our guess. We’re not talking here about real experts like doctors, dentists, pilots or plumbers; individuals that deliver worthwhile services. No; we refer to those experts that make a lucrative living despite being persistently wrong. The investment industry is full of them but…
Once upon a time, economic prosperity was the result of a high savings ratio combined with sweat and risk taking. Victorian Britain pioneered it while the U.S. was built on it. Thrift created the funds that could be re-cycled via the banking system which, in turn, begat further wealth creation. Obviously, this commendable model contained…
It is a great comfort to know that those who were playing blind man’s buff while the economic crisis was fermenting now see a swift recovery on the horizon. Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said recently “the U.S. economy appears to be stabilizing on many fronts and that recovery is likely to…
In recent years, Budgets have been rather boring, a mirage of prosperity rendering them a sideshow. However, last month’s crossed the Rubicon. The Chancellor believes there will be a rapid economic recovery and while the economy will contract by 3.5% this year, he plumps for growth of 1.25% in 2010 followed by 3.5% in 2011.…
In order to fund its massive borrowing requirements, the government has been selling bonds (gilts) to investors. However, last month, for the first time in seven years, there were not enough buyers for the £1.75bn of bonds offered for sale. In short, not enough potential investors were prepared to stump up for the returns on…
Remember Prudence? Go on, think back, you know her. She was that fresh faced, well mannered girl. There was a time when you couldn’t miss her but she hasn’t been around for years now, which is a shame because we really liked her. Looking back, she never truly recovered after being jilted by that politician…
The UK is now facing a severe economic contraction. While we chose to ignore the comments of politicians and bankers on both sides of the Atlantic, who routinely alluded to the strength of the global economy, there is no question that, economically speaking, we are now in uncharted territory. Governments have attacked the problem by…
The American writer Gore Vidal, once remarked that “it was not enough to succeed, others must fail”. I suspect recent comments by the German Finance Minister, Peer Steinbrück, confirm Mr Vidal’s observation. With typical teutonic efficiency, the German language already had the perfect word to describe the problems affecting the Ango-Saxon economies; schadenfreude. After years…
Those old wives knew a thing or two. A stitch in time does save nine. The road to hell is paved with good intentions and if you give a certain type of individual sufficient rope, they usually end up hanging themselves. Interestingly, such people often show up in politics or finance. Several of the world’s…
It has taken six months but the final chapters of the Northern Rock saga are about to be written. The first run on a bank since the 19th century will end in nationalisation by a government that was desperate to avoid taking such action. There will likely be legal moves, spearheaded by the two hedge…
